Election question

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November 5th, 2012 at 4:14:59 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Just been looking at both the Fox poll and the538.com polls over time. Both suggest a close election in the national vote, but what struck me is that it looked like Romney was making a big surge up until October 12-14th, then this faded... or he even lost ground. What happened around then? The only thing I can find is the VP debate, which would didn't strike me as a big inflection point.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
November 5th, 2012 at 8:25:32 PM permalink
rdw4potus
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 10
Posts: 147
Most likely, the bump from the first debate just faded. The convention bounces also both lasted about a week.
I'm not wearing any pants, film at 11
November 6th, 2012 at 10:17:58 AM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: rdw4potus
Most likely, the bump from the first debate just faded. The convention bounces also both lasted about a week.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

(Rasmussen has a similar but smaller effect, mostly as the way the two sites present their data is different). It's a very noticeable change, between October 1st to October 14th Romney was gaining heavily.

(This is regardless of popular vote, electoral college or chance of winning stats... I realize all 3 are related but different). Hmm, just curious if there was a narrative.

I await this evening around 10pm PST to see which side will have the gnashing of the teeth and the rending of the hair, from one side or the other. Though, actually, I suspect it'll be close, and wouldn't be surprised if it's not all over bar the screaming by then... one or two states could come down to absentee votes.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
November 6th, 2012 at 1:11:29 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: TheCesspit
(This is regardless of popular vote, electoral college or chance of winning stats... I realize all 3 are related but different). Though, actually, I suspect it'll be close, and wouldn't be surprised if it's not all over bar the screaming by then... one or two states could come down to absentee votes.


These are the seven states that Obama won by the narrowest margin
Barack Obama's margin over John McCain in 2008.
9.54% Iowa
8.95% Colorado
6.30% Virginia
4.59% Ohio
2.81% Florida
1.04% Indiana
0.33% North Carolina

The fact is that every one of these seven states was icing on the cake for Obama. He could have lost all of them and still won the election (just barely). While it is expected that Obama is going to lose Indiana and NC, and probably Florida, I just don't see any indication that Obama is going to lose all the other states.
November 6th, 2012 at 1:24:58 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: Pacomartin
These are the seven states that Obama won by the narrowest margin
Barack Obama's margin over John McCain in 2008.
9.54% Iowa
8.95% Colorado
6.30% Virginia
4.59% Ohio
2.81% Florida
1.04% Indiana
0.33% North Carolina

The fact is that every one of these seven states was icing on the cake for Obama. He could have lost all of them and still won the election (just barely). While it is expected that Obama is going to lose Indiana and NC, and probably Florida, I just don't see any indication that Obama is going to lose all the other states.


I keep getting told that this will be a landslide for Romney (whose barely been above 50% on many of the polls himself).
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
November 6th, 2012 at 1:26:37 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: TheCesspit
I keep getting told that this will be a landslide for Romney (whose barely been above 50% on many of the polls himself).


Partly it's nostalgia for 1980, when the landslide was unpredicted by everyone.

But if Romney wins big, who will trust polls again?
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
November 6th, 2012 at 1:30:59 PM permalink
rdw4potus
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 10
Posts: 147
Quote: TheCesspit
I keep getting told that this will be a landslide for Romney (whose barely been above 50% on many of the polls himself).


If Romney wins, that's the most likely outcome. It'd be quite odd for him to have enough hidden support to win, but not enough hidden support to win big.
I'm not wearing any pants, film at 11
November 6th, 2012 at 1:37:55 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
I only want Romney to win because of the tantrum this would create in the media. Hell, Dukakis vs Bush had some highly entertaining pieces! This one would be one of the best yet.

Otherwise, if Romney wins, I predict the GOP will either a) suddenly fall in love with the individual mandate or b) alter the individual mandate so that it's the same thing but seems different. Also the deficit will go up.

If we want the deficit to go down, we need to form a large, coherent block of "deficit hawk" voters. This block should organize and demand reduced spending and "entitlement" reform by any means necessary. And they'd have to threaten to vote for the other party, regardless of which party it is, until their demands are met. Something along this lines has worked rather well for other blocks with other demands. of course, the actual policies produced are a different matter in some cases (case in point: no one has overturned Roe v Wade).
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
November 6th, 2012 at 1:43:40 PM permalink
s2dbaker
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 13
Posts: 241
Quote: TheCesspit
I keep getting told that this will be a landslide for Romney (whose barely been above 50% on many of the polls himself).
Gallup just released their final number and surprise!! Obama closed the gap by 4 points from Gallup's last poll. Magic? perhaps or more likely, Gallup didn't want to look like fools. Still, only Gallup and Rasmussen have Romney in the lead.
November 6th, 2012 at 1:44:07 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
To divide the blocks along fiscal lines rather than fiscal/social lines would almost be a move to the 7th party system. Not least as clearly both candidates are rush to the centre. The US fiscal conservatives seem to be unable to not say something then socially authoritarian, which diminishes their chances of picking up votes in many of the interest blocks.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
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