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In The News Today...
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| June 13th, 2018 at 12:55:53 PM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12532 |
Well, something like 85-90% of Republicans approve of Donald's job performance, so it makes complete sense that Anti-Trump candidates would lose their primaries. “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
| June 13th, 2018 at 1:59:22 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 | I always think the best political predictor is the betting market. The going odds at Betfair suggest: GOP majority in Senate: 70.2% GOP majority in House: 48.3% Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| June 13th, 2018 at 2:55:48 PM permalink | |
| DRich Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 51 Posts: 4967 |
How did that work out for your Presidential bets? At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent. |
| June 13th, 2018 at 2:58:25 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
Why, because Betfair was so accurate in the past? This is 2 days before the 2016 election: "Currently, the market (Betfair) is saying Clinton has a 78% chance of winning on Tuesday, and Trump has a 22% chance of winning on Tuesday." Clinton was 1.3/1 to win, Trump was 4.5/1 Do we remember how that turned out? Also, Betfair said Brexit had a 30% chance of passing. Epic fail. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| June 13th, 2018 at 4:27:01 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095 | If the weather forecaster says there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow and then it rains the next day, is the forecaster wrong? Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| June 13th, 2018 at 4:29:43 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
If Betfair says Trump has a 22% chance of winning, should I turn to them in the future as a reliable betting source? If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| June 13th, 2018 at 5:26:20 PM permalink | |
| kenarman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 14 Posts: 4515 |
If I say that any question I am asked has a .00000001% chance of happening will I ever be wrong? "but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin |
| June 13th, 2018 at 6:21:19 PM permalink | |
| beachbumbabs Member since: Sep 3, 2013 Threads: 6 Posts: 1600 |
Weather forecaster is NOT saying there's a 10% chance of rain. More accurately, he's predicting there WILL be rain in 10% of the forecast area. If you're not at your house when it rains at your house, did it rain? Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has |
| June 13th, 2018 at 7:08:10 PM permalink | |
| Dalex64 Member since: Mar 8, 2014 Threads: 3 Posts: 3687 | To be fair, a 10% chance of rain means that for any given point within the forecast area, there is a 10% chance of rain. https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan |
| June 13th, 2018 at 7:11:46 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
That's the way the TV weather people have explained it for the last 50 years. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |