First world anti-homosexuality evangelism and Africa

Quote: AZDuffman

I would say at some point in the next 100 years the USA and Canada will need to import 1/3 or more of their current population.

It is very difficult to say what attitudes will be in 100 years. Most organizations don't try to go beyond 2050. There may be a backlash to lack of fertility and/or massive wars over property.

For instance there is almost no growth left in China. The US Census thinks it will peak in 13 years at only 3.4% higher than today. That prediction has come down radically in the last few years. So given that China has only 13 years of growth, and will drop from there, and given the current US growth with immigration, in 100 years USA would be bigger than China.

China population prediction
1,349.6 million: 2013
1,395.0 million: 2026 (peak)

Given that China is four times the size of USA today, it is hard to imagine such a scenario.

Japan peaked in 2008 and is now back to it's 2001 population. They already have the oldest population on Earth. As one professor put it, we can hardly imagine that the countries with all the people won't invade the countries with all the infrastructure.

Quote: Pacomartin

It is very difficult to say what attitudes will be in 100 years. Most organizations don't try to go beyond 2050. There may be a backlash to lack of fertility and/or massive wars over property.

I don't see any massive "wars over poverty." Poor nations do not go to war unless attacked. As to fertility, I don't know that I see that changing either. Common factors in the world seem to be wealth reduces fertility, and since about 1900 in developed nations each generation has fewer children per woman than the generation before. Add in social acceptability of choosing to have zero kids and a population implosion seems inevitable.

But there is more to it than just that. For too many people, children are a downright distraction. They don't want to watch the kids, they want to watch "Mad Men." They don't want to play a board game with the kids, they want to cruise the internet. They don't want a minivan, they want a Mustang. Then there is the cost. Used to be a father took his son to learn his trade. Now he is expected to save $100K to send the kid to college. For those who are "maybe" to having kids this all pushes them to "no's." This attitude has been building since about 1960 and shows no signs of slowing. Once the shift begins it will take generations to return to "big families" if we do at all.

I have said here before, mankind has about 1,000 years left before we die out.

Quote: AZDuffman

As to fertility, I don't know that I see that changing either. Common factors in the world seem to be wealth reduces fertility, and since about 1900 in developed nations each generation has fewer children per woman than the generation before.

I have said here before, mankind has about 1,000 years left before we die out.

Russia's birth rate was as low as 8.2 per 1000 in 1999 and is now over 12. The birth rate has gone up with increased wealth. Natural rate of population change went from a loss of 1 million per year to a loss of 1/4 million in 8 years.

Russia change in population from previous year
Some of this population is due to immigrants.
1994 +133,089
1995 +136,180
1996 -161,199
1997 -223,292
1998 -218,756
1999 -455,887
2000 -644,939
2001 -719,803
2002 -804,371
2003 -792,508
2004 -737,237
2005 -680,529
2006 -583,764
2007 -294,478
2008 -48,125
2009 +68,340
2010 +65,405
2011 -1,308
2012 -7,918
2013 -17,188

No nation has gone from sub-replacement fertility to replacement fertility without a lot of fertile immigrants, but in 100 years who knows?

Quote: Pacomartin

Russia's birth rate was as low as 8.2 per 1000 in 1999 and is now over 12. The birth rate has gone up with increased wealth.

One exception does not make a trend. It has also gone up from an exceptionally low number due to an economic collapse. Russia is still not at replacement level long-term.

You're right, the trend is still towards decreasing population. But it is still difficult to predict 100 years in the future. Having children has become increasingly glamorous in recent years.

Quote: Pacomartin

You're right, the trend is still towards decreasing population. But it is still difficult to predict 100 years in the future. Having children has become increasingly glamorous in recent years.

I am not denying it is difficult to predict it, but you can look at some general trends and consider how long it may take to reverse themselves. For example, even through Depression, war, and prosperity the USA has seen a decline in birth rate for 100+ years. At the same time, the center of population in the USA has always moved south and west. Internationally populations have for 100 years been moving from rural to urban.

Getting back to Europe, I predict in 100 years it will be almost totally German-Polish dominated. Poland will be drawn to Germany and be sort of to Germany what Mexico is to the USA, lower cost labor at first but building over time. Ironically they will achieve Hitler's dream of economic domination but need none of the "living space" he craved in the east. Russia will be dangerously underpopulated, but they will have no worries in the west as the Germans will find it more profitable and easy to trade with them than to conquer them. The real danger to Russia will come from the south and from Iran and Turkey. Southern Europe will get poorer and poorer.

Quote: AZDuffman

Getting back to Europe, I predict in 100 years it will be almost totally German-Polish dominated.

Southern Europe will get poorer and poorer.

Germany was 50% larger than UK by population at beginning of WWII. It is currently 28% larger, and in 40 years they should be the same population. Does that affect your prediction?

Quote: Pacomartin

Germany was 50% larger than UK by population at beginning of WWII. It is currently 28% larger, and in 40 years they should be the same population. Does that affect your prediction?

Not really, because Germany will not need its own population as much as it did then. Germany more than most countries will benefit from more and more robotics and automation what with their being a high-value manufacturing economy. The Brits don't really compete there. The real competitors to Germany will be USA, S Korea, China, and Japan. Dark horses would be Brazil and India. But nobody in Europe will challenge them.

Quote: AZDuffman

Not really, because Germany will not need its own population as much as it did then.

The present Euro zone is unlikely to break up beyond losing the Med countries. I think Poland, Hungary, and Czech Repubilic, Slovakia and the Latvia and Lithuania are still eager to get into the Euro.

Quote: Pacomartin

Having children has become increasingly glamorous in recent years.

So too has Zero Population Growth notions or notions about Only One Kid or No Kids....

Some people simply think of kids as a bundle of germs that wears pajamas, some see a somewhat greater potential and an acceptance of the fact that wet diapers are not particularly a thrilling event to deal with. I've met a great many young girls who decided early in their lives that they would not be reproducing. They value fun too much to give the potential for grand kids much weight.

I've used the example before that alligators become male or female based on subsurface ground temperatures which are mainly based on water availability. In what we refer to as "higher" organisms there seems to be more than just 'male' and 'female'. Sexuality and sexual orientation arise.

In some South Pacific settlements everyone is related to everyone else and crime is low ... so too is sexual discrimination though its not known if it is due to relationship issues or not. In tribal groups homosexuality is probably less accepted but there is often an awareness that some men are more inclined to a basket than a bow. Producing warriors may be important for a tribe but non-warriors have value too.

Very little happening in Africa is taking place in some void... its a Christian/Muslim conflict area and a food/famine conflict area.

Perhaps the best example is the Somali Pirates... different klans, different religions and different ethnic backgrounds... but united as pirates. Whatever values they have are derived from their experiences and not from any innate state of nature simply because in any conflict area...there are no innocent bystanders.