 |
 |
betting on the 2024 popular vote
| October 25th, 2024 at 10:28:34 PM permalink | |
| reno Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 59 Posts: 1388 | I'm predicting that Harris wins the electoral college, but I'm not confident enough in my prediction to actually wager money on it. But the popular vote? That's a no brainer. Harris will win it handily and it won't be close. In 2020, the largest city that Donald Trump won was Oklahoma City, population: 680,000. Biden won every city larger than that-- even cities in deep red states (Houston, Dallas, etc). In fact, for every metro area (city + suburbs) with more than 1 million residents, Biden averaged 58% against Trump's 40%. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by over 2.8 million. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million. As most people know, the Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections. Bush won the 2004 popular vote by winning Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Tampa, Jacksonville. All of this is background for my main point: online casino Bovada currently has Harris as the favorite to win the popular vote. But the odds are very generous: just -175. For most of September and October, Bovada had the odds at -300 (it was briefly at -400 for a week.) So a $100 wager wins $57. For an event that has occurred 87.5% of the time in the last 8 elections and all the polling indicates will occur yet again on November 5. |
| October 26th, 2024 at 5:30:56 AM permalink | |
| SOOPOO Member since: Feb 19, 2014 Threads: 25 Posts: 5738 |
I agree. There are just so many more ‘always Democrat’ than ‘always Republican’ voters. If anyone wants to bet, I’ll give you Trump plus ONE MILLION votes in the National Popular Vote. Even money. Although I don’t want Trump to actually be President, I will be rooting for him to win the popular vote, as I think that would be interpreted as a mandate AGAINST the liberal Democrat platform. As I’ve said ad nauseum, the fact that perhaps the most flawed major candidate in history actually has a chance says more about the Democrat agenda than anything else. |
| October 26th, 2024 at 10:51:53 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 137 Posts: 21195 | That they are now offering popular vote props should say something about what they feel her chances are. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength |
| October 26th, 2024 at 12:00:38 PM permalink | |
| reno Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 59 Posts: 1388 |
Bovada has Trump as the underdog (for the popular vote) at +135 For the electoral college: Trump is the favorite at -185 and Harris is the underdog at +160 Easy money, AZ! |
| October 26th, 2024 at 12:59:01 PM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 137 Posts: 21195 |
In a friendly nfl pool I’m in I’ve gotten 1 of the last 13 right. I wouldn’t bet Putin in the Russian elections at the moment. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength |
| October 26th, 2024 at 1:07:49 PM permalink | |
| DRich Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 57 Posts: 5896 |
That is about as well as my football bets have been going. At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a deterrent. |
| October 26th, 2024 at 1:24:37 PM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 76 Posts: 12501 |
I used to vote Republican and was a registered republican The party has changed Republicans are no longer fiscal conservatives The defecit increased big time under Trump and no republican spoke up about that Republicans used to be against country's that were against freedom such as Russia, China and S Korea That's no longer the case with Trump Republicans used to be for Capitalism and free trade Trump is against free trade due to tarriffs I support companies in the US that have become huge international corporations such as Cummins Trump is against Cummins because they build engines overseas and Trump is out to punish these types of companies I never voted for Clinton but he was the last President to balance the budget Republicans against freedom here in the US by banning abortions I now vote Dem because I don't hate gays I don't hate blacks I don't hate transgenders I don't hate immigrants I'm for the peaceful transfer of power Republicans are for the Jan 6 rioters I just see no reason to vote red The only thing positive about Trump is that he was pro vaccine. It's common sense and that's one issue dumb MAGA is against Trump on Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |