Biden's Biggest Blunder

Biden's Biggest Blunder:
A Culmination of Poor Decisions

Afghanistan is not a country most Americans think about with any regularity (especially currently with so many domestic uncertainties).

The short version is: Trump wanted to get out of Afghanistan very quickly (even in a way that alarmed much of his party and some of his cabinet, some were even fired for pushing back), at some point in 2019 peace talks were started with the Taliban (at least in a public forum). A deal was reached in 2020 for U.S. withdrawal.

Trump lost the election, and continued to push for the withdraw up until his last days in office (with the 2.5k troop levels, an all time low), just in time for Biden (early January of 2021).

In any case Biden is President now, and he has vowed to continue to withdrawal. He even pushed up the date (all U.S. forces to be removed by the end of August2021, with 31AUG2021 to be the closing day so to speak.

In what should come as a surprise to nobody, as the U.S. pulled out and minimized operations, the Taliban spread. As of today, they now control or contest (which is political speak for basically control), the geographical majority of the country, including several major cities. The one thing that is holding off even more spread, is U.S. air support (bombings and airstrikes), however, as of now Biden also wants to end air support as part of ending combat operations.

Ending air support will be Biden's Biggest Blunder. The country will once again be controlled by the Taliban by the end of the year I would predict (possibly much sooner). Pulling ground forces was a poor decision, there should be a presence of strength maintained, but quitting airstrikes cold turkey on 31AUG2021 will lead to possibly irreversible harm (or the only way to reverse it would be another 20 year long operation, for which many in America would not have the stomach for.....)

Even though this folly was started by Trump, Biden is the one who has the power now to change it, he just seems to lack the will. This may be the first major mistake of his Presidency, and he is getting very little criticism for it. Even Trump got very little criticism for starting this spiral, and this may have been one of his larger mistakes (and for Trump that is saying a lot.....)

Just wanted to put this out there, and as this month comes to an end keep your eyes on Afghanistan and see how it develops and who ends up in control....

Also, if (I would say when) the Taliban ends up in full control, does anyone actually believe they will honor the agreement to not associate with Islamic extremist groups (which the Taliban, it would be as silly as getting the KKK to agree to not associate with White Supremacy groups.... even if they say say, it is an oxymoron, and means virtually nothing)?

Sadly these are not issues most Americans care about until its too late. When the Taliban (hypothetically) takes control of Afghanistan, and they start crossing the border into the Pakistan and working with their groups in rural Pakistan, it will be a much more expensive (in terms of lives, money, and time) conflict than anything we have experienced so far in order to preserve the Pakistan border (even longer if re-liberating Afghanistan gets lumped into that conflict, and I have a feeling that it will).... Something else to keep in mind, being isolationist in the short term, can lead to the extreme opposite in the long term to stabilize the region.






https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-urges-global-community-look-into-meltdown-afghan-forces-2021-08-09/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57933979

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-taliban-peace-deal-agreement-afghanistan-war

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R45122.pdf

What do you propose
Stay there indefinitely
With this virus, I don't think anybody really cares about Afghanistan

Gandler

I'll say the same thing essentially as before. You can't help people who won't help themselves. Let's imagine for a second we could magically replace anti-taliban Afghans with the Kurdish in the same position. How do you think they would do with the same assistance we've given the Afghans after all this time?

And sure nothing is ever representative of all the civilized Afghans. But it's not in enough numbers. I don't know why it is that way, but that's the way it appears to me.

Quote: Gandler

Biden's Biggest Blunder:
A Culmination of Poor Decisions

Afghanistan is not a country most Americans think about with any regularity (especially currently with so many domestic uncertainties).

The short version is: Trump wanted to get out of Afghanistan very quickly (even in a way that alarmed much of his party and some of his cabinet, some were even fired for pushing back), at some point in 2019 peace talks were started with the Taliban (at least in a public forum). A deal was reached in 2020 for U.S. withdrawal.

Trump lost the election, and continued to push for the withdraw up until his last days in office (with the 2.5k troop levels, an all time low), just in time for Biden (early January of 2021).

In any case Biden is President now, and he has vowed to continue to withdrawal. He even pushed up the date (all U.S. forces to be removed by the end of August2021, with 31AUG2021 to be the closing day so to speak.

In what should come as a surprise to nobody, as the U.S. pulled out and minimized operations, the Taliban spread. As of today, they now control or contest (which is political speak for basically control), the geographical majority of the country, including several major cities. The one thing that is holding off even more spread, is U.S. air support (bombings and airstrikes), however, as of now Biden also wants to end air support as part of ending combat operations.

Let them spread. If we are lucky China or Iran will invade the place and waste their blood and treasure. This is the same thing we heard about South Vietnam. If we had kept providing "support" we might have been doing so until 1990.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC nobody in modern times has conquered and effectively ruled Afghanistan.

Not the Brits, the commies, or the USA.

It's a wild, fragmented land, a collection of regions ruled by warlords with no desire for national rule.

Alas, Islam affects their politics.

Quote: terapined

What do you propose
Stay there indefinitely
With this virus, I don't think anybody really cares about Afghanistan

Even if there is no will to stay there on the ground forever, airstrikes and bombings should continue.

This was my primary point, if air support is cut off on 31AUG2021, the Taliban will spread even faster. This is the last piece that is helping the Afghan Army keep a small handle on the Taliban in some places (in others its still not enough).

I don't think we should do a 100% pullout. But, even if we do (which I accept is probably the most popular position in both parties), I see no reason air strikes cannot continue, this requires minimal risk and commitment, and can make a huge difference for the forces on the ground.

If Biden goes through with cutting off 100% of airstrikes by the end of August, he is handing the Taliban Afghanistan on a silver platter....

Quote: rxwine

Gandler

I'll say the same thing essentially as before. You can't help people who won't help themselves. Let's imagine for a second we could magically replace anti-taliban Afghans with the Kurdish in the same position. How do you think they would do with the same assistance we've given the Afghans after all this time?

And sure nothing is ever representative of all the civilized Afghans. But it's not in enough numbers. I don't know why it is that way, but that's the way it appears to me.

That is an interesting thought. I have always held an affinity for the Kurdish people, and its terrible how they have been treated (especially after being so loyal to the U.S.)


Kurdish forces have actually done remarkably well, I think if they had the resources that we put into Afghanistan, the region would be vastly more stable. Sadly the Kurds are in a tough position because they do not have any land of their own. If the Kurds were running the Afghan military (which I think is what you were getting at), I have a feeling the Taliban would be the ones on the run. That is not to take away from the great people in the Afghan military, but there is a leadership problem, and it can be fragmented (and there are some who just do not want to be there and are basically waiting to surrender....)

Quote: AZDuffman

Let them spread. If we are lucky China or Iran will invade the place and waste their blood and treasure. This is the same thing we heard about South Vietnam. If we had kept providing "support" we might have been doing so until 1990.

They border Pakistan (which already has a problem with the Taliban). Pakistan is a nuclear power. Pakistan is just one coup or revolution away from being a Taliban Nuclear Power state. This is why Pakistan is such a critical ally that must be protected if for no other reason, our own defense.

South Vietnam is an excellent example, almost immediately after we pulled out, the North took the country. The South Vietnamese military simply was not ready to take them on their own....

Quote: missedhervee

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC nobody in modern times has conquered and effectively ruled Afghanistan.

Not the Brits, the commies, or the USA.

It's a wild, fragmented land, a collection of regions ruled by warlords with no desire for national rule.

Alas, Islam affects their politics.

Well it depends on your definition of effective, but from the mid 90s until 2001ish, the Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

Of course they were effective because of their viciousness (and their allies with even more extreme groups).

Which is why we had to remove them from power (they were allowing extremist groups to train and organize, on top of their general vile methods of ruling).

Afghanistan bankrupted the Soviet Union in the 80s. Let's learn from their mistake.

Quote: Evenbob

Afghanistan bankrupted the Soviet Union in the 80s. Let's learn from their mistake.

Too late. We spent over twice as much time there and lost even more money for no good reason. American's no longer have the stomach for profiling people who might pose a threat so we are pretty screwed either way.

Quote: AZDuffman

American's no longer have the stomach for profiling people who might pose a threat so we are pretty screwed either way.

Confederate flag waving white supremacists? They pose the biggest safety threat these days.

Quote: ams288

Confederate flag waving white supremacists? They pose the biggest safety threat these days.

That is what the Dems want you to believe. The intention is to brainwash the deliberately dumbed-down simpletons into equating Republicans and Conservatives with racism and white supremacism. If it tests favorably in their focus groups, they use it.

Here is Biden calling the Sons of The Confederacy "an organization made up of many fine people" in 1993.