Neoconservatism: Why We Need it

Quote: Gandler

I was trying to avoid going the UBI debate route here.

But, yes, many reputable people support UBI. Every tech billionaire that you can probably name offhand supports it. (Other billionaires and CEOs do as well, but I focus on tech for a specific reason). Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Jack Dorsey, Mark Zuckerberg are probably the big five that come to your and everyone's mind.

For somebody to be that massively successful in tech, they need to be good at both business and math (coding). So if you measure their mathematical and business brilliance by their wealth the fact that the richest men (in the case of Bezos richest man in the world who is not a dictator) in tech, all support this shows that it is not a crackpot theory. Mark Cuban was one holdout, but he has started to come around since COVID-19 (saying biweekly checks for duration of the virus, and potentially beyond). I don't claim to be a math genius, probably barely average (if I do well on math tests its because I study hard, and am good at studying for tests), but many mathematically sound (not just sound but revolutionaries) support it, even the Wizard said that he did in one of his livestreams that I watched about election betting (when Yang was still in the primary (I don't know if this is a view that he still holds).

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However, the larger issue is, we are automating away jobs. Eventually there will be wealth that accumulates itself (in the sense that no human worker is directly required). This may not be today or tomorrow, but it will be in the coming years. I am young (as you love to point out), but even in my short life, I have seen technology progress in ways that if you asked me 15 years ago I would laugh at. The idea that in 50 years very few Americans will be working (certainly not in the kind of jobs that exist now) is not fringe but expected (if not far sooner, 50 years is a very conservative timeline).

Quote: AZDuffman

You do not have to be a math genius to understand that UBI cannot work. All you have to understand is that you cannot magically create wealth. You have to understand that to give someone $500 a week you need to steal $550 a week from them, the extra $50 to run the machinery of the program.



NONSENSE! We have been automating jobs for generations. Look at grocery stores. 100 years ago you did not even touch the items! You asked for what you needed and they got it. 40 years ago they still did not have the automation they do today. Today they have self-serve checkouts. But the average store employs even more people! They just do different things.

"The Jetsons" showed a world where we all just worked a few hours a day, pushing buttons. It is not coming your way! Do not believe those kind of promises because they rarely happen like you think they will.

But lets make it simple. The first robots came out in the very late 60s, lets call it 1970. That is 50 years ago. Now, I ask you. Were there more jobs in 1970 or today?

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Gandler

Eventually there will be wealth that accumulates itself

Quote: Gandler

Well, for one, I don’t know any UBI that pushes for 500 a week. 1000-1200 USD a month seem to be a common range (but pilot programs are more in the 600-800 dollar range).

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The first robots, I don’t know. I know AI is relatively new, and is progressing faster than anyone thought.

Compared to 1970, I am saying off the top of my head more jobs today because of growth. But, (and this is a big but) the average wage (scaled for inflation) is down from 1970. We lost a lot of high paying entry level jobs (manufacturers, etc....) due to automation and outsourcing. And, truckers (a well paying entry level job) will be the next big group that is automated away within 20 years, and every other job that just involves driving.... This is not a small amount of people....