Democratic Nominee in 2020

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17 members have voted

September 17th, 2018 at 8:54:46 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 210
Posts: 5218
Quote: Pacomartin
Here is some birthdays and current position. I would be surprised if someone from CA or NY gets nominated.


I don't think state of origin is that important. What odds will you give me on Harris?

My prediction is Hilary will stay out and Biden will run. If nobody more progressive stands up, he will win the nomination and lose the election. I will quote this post after the election -- wait and see.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 17th, 2018 at 10:58:58 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 134
Posts: 7042
Quote: Wizard
That is largely why I just bet $1,000 on Trump to win.


Have you ever gone to get food, find every food available on the menu bland or unappetizing, and instead just decide to eat a nearby bag of smelly horse s**t instead?

Ever?

That's my argument against no one will 'will vote for ho hum duds"
Nobody learned anything from the global financial crisis.
September 17th, 2018 at 11:50:50 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 898
Posts: 10665
Quote: Wizard
I don't think state of origin is that important.


Maybe not in general, but CA and NY are considered extreme. You would have a hard time winning the battleground states.

I think Dick Cheney's association with Nebraska and Wyoming might have the same effect.
September 18th, 2018 at 4:57:15 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 15
Posts: 3787
Didn't California move up their 2020 primary?

Might give Kamala Harris a better shot at the nomination - if she can gain early momentum by racking up all those California delegates early on.

Assuming she runs.
In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion
September 18th, 2018 at 9:24:02 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 898
Posts: 10665
Quote: ams288
Didn't California move up their 2020 primary?

Might give Kamala Harris a better shot at the nomination - if she can gain early momentum by racking up all those California delegates early on.

Assuming she runs.


Kamala Harris now betting favorite among Democrats for 2020 election
The CA primary was moved to 3 March 2020.

Quote: ams288
Assuming she runs.


She will be 56 years old, and the child of a Tamil Indian mother and a Jamaican father. In July 2018, it was announced that she would publish a memoir, another sign of a possible run. So I would say it is a real possibility
September 18th, 2018 at 2:50:02 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 210
Posts: 5218
Quote: Pacomartin
Maybe not in general, but CA and NY are considered extreme. You would have a hard time winning the battleground states.


California also gave us Reagan and Nixon. I think the bigger negative is you don't get any home field advantage in any battleground state.

BTW, a neighbor of mine is Susie Lee who is running for Nevada's third district, where I live.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 19th, 2018 at 4:04:17 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 898
Posts: 10665
Quote: Wizard
BTW, a neighbor of mine is Susie Lee who is running for Nevada's third district, where I live.


The Nevada third district is a "fair fight" district, and as originally drawn had a relatively equal balance of registered Republicans and registered Democrats. It has so far been held by two different Democrats and two different Republicans, although the Republicans held the seat for 6 terms and Democrats for 2 terms.

Presidential vote in NV 3rd district
2004 Bush 50% – 49%
2008 Obama 55% – 43%
2012 Obama 50% – 49%
2016 Trump 48% – 47%

I also live in a battleground district in PA, although the districts were completely redrawn for this November's election

Presidential vote in PA 7th district
2004 Kerry 53%–47%
2008 Obama 56%–43%
2012 Romney 50.4%–48.5%
2016 Clinton 49.3%–47.0%

The Wizard lives in one of the 14 congressional districts with a Democratic congressperson but who voted for Trump. I live in one of the 23 districts with a Republican congressman who voted for Hillary. Our Republican congressman had so many fights with Trump that he resigned in May.

A specific question for the Wizard, and a general question for other people.

Do you find that if you live in a battleground district the dialogue among your neighbors is more or less heated than in a solid red or blue district?


I imagine that if you live in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez district in New York city where less than 20% of the vote was for Trump or Romney, than there is very little to fight about.
September 19th, 2018 at 4:21:45 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 118
Posts: 9526
Quote: Pacomartin


Do you find that if you live in a battleground district the dialogue among your neighbors is more or less heated than in a solid red or blue district?


I imagine that if you live in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez district in New York city where less than 20% of the vote was for Trump or Romney, than there is very little to fight about.


I never noticed much difference. Have had one guy at the VFW who had to be told to STFU about politics at the table. Last week had a discussion with a Dem about politics but not a "debate." He had a few questions for me about following Trump. His wife showed me a pic of Obama and said, "I miss him" to which I just replied, "I hate him, please change the subject."
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 19th, 2018 at 4:54:18 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 210
Posts: 5218
Quote: Pacomartin
A specific question for the Wizard, and a general question for other people.

Do you find that if you live in a battleground district the dialogue among your neighbors is more or less heated than in a solid red or blue district?


I live very close to both the first and fourth districts. I think the fourth is also a battleground district. So, I never open a political discussion by asking what district somebody is in. You can probably tell from here that I try to not argue about politics unless I really feel strongly about a position. However, I'm pretty sure that a debate is more likely to ensue if politics came up than in say my old 7th district in Maryland, which was about 90% Democratic. Even there, people will still find a point of departure on something and then argue about it. It's no fun to agree.

I did debate with Susie Lee about Social Security a bit when she came to my door. Her position on that is more liberal than mine.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 19th, 2018 at 5:25:49 PM permalink
reno
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 57
Posts: 1105
Quote: Wizard
That is largely why I just bet $1,000 on Trump to win.


What happens to your $1,000 bet if Trump doesn't finish his first term?

This is from August 28:

Quote: Ladbrokes
Odds of an impeachment before the end of his first term have been slashed from 5/2 into just 6/4.

Meanwhile, odds of the 72-year-old being replaced in the White House this year have also been trimmed into 13/2 (from 10/1).

His chances of re-election in 2020 look unlikely, with 1/2 for Trump not to serve a second term.

As it stands, he’s still more likely than not to serve out the first term at 4/9, but the impeachment price has tumbled significantly.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: “It’s been a busy week in the world of politics and the latest news has led to punters predicting an impeachment before the end of Trump’s 1st Term.”


Impeachment is unlikely, but not impossible.
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