can we trust the polls?
September 12th, 2018 at 3:49:32 PM permalink | |
reno Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 58 Posts: 1384 | In final days of the 1980 Presidential campaign, both the national polls and the state polls incorrectly showed a tight race that had Carter and Reagan neck & neck. As it turned out, the polls were off by over 8 points, which is unusually large by historical standards. Reagan won the electoral college 489 to 49. In the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Presidential races, the national polls were all off by just 2 or 3 percent. But since Presidential elections are based upon the electoral college, state polls are more important than national polls. That's unfortunate, because state polls are almost always less accurate than the national polls (the most recent exceptions were in 1996 and 1984.) In 2016, the state polls were erroneous by an average of 5.2 percent. Statistician Nate Silver argues that the general public had gotten spoiled by the unusual accuracy of the 2004, 2008, & 2012 polls which made the 2016 results all the more surprising.
The night before the 2016 election, Silver gave Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning the White House. As I write this, Silver is forecasting an 83.1% chance that the Democrats gain control of the House, and a 66.2% chance that the Republicans keep the Senate. Is he right? |
September 12th, 2018 at 4:03:10 PM permalink | |
Dalex64 Member since: Mar 8, 2014 Threads: 3 Posts: 3687 | Well let's see. You need to hold the election in millions of parallel universe, record who gains control, and see how close the frequency of who wins compares against the predicted percentage. "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan |
September 12th, 2018 at 4:55:52 PM permalink | |
Dalex64 Member since: Mar 8, 2014 Threads: 3 Posts: 3687 | Oh and I think a properly conducted poll is plenty accurate. "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan |
September 12th, 2018 at 5:20:57 PM permalink | |
Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
So why were 99% of the properly conducted polls in 2016 so wrong, then. This happens every election cycle, they talk themselves into believing election polls, when they know they can't be trusted. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
September 12th, 2018 at 5:54:54 PM permalink | |
Dalex64 Member since: Mar 8, 2014 Threads: 3 Posts: 3687 | Your willfull ignorance is not my problem. "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan |
September 12th, 2018 at 10:56:39 PM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | Dewey Defeats Truman.... banner headline Chicago Tribune poll. Peace in the Pacific.... banner headline on the most well respected political commentary magazine in the USA: World Report. Date: December 7, 1941. People who sign petitions for the Save The Skeets Foundation vote in opinion polls as do those who sign petitions to urge Canada to counter the effects of global warming by air conditioning the meeting place of the Canadian Parliament, the National Igloo. |
September 13th, 2018 at 11:26:23 AM permalink | |
Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
The 'properly conducted' poll in 1980 had Carter evenly tied with Reagan the day before the election. Reagan crushed Carter, got over 400 of the EC votes. The Lib press was stunned, a senile clownish cowboy actor was now president. They never got over it for 8 years. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
September 13th, 2018 at 3:07:23 PM permalink | |
petroglyph Member since: Aug 3, 2014 Threads: 25 Posts: 6227 | From link "Example: The Catholic church slowly progressing from a concept of “God decides what happens next. We have to propitiate him.” to “God created the laws of physics and logic.” Which allows them to think in terms of logic and physics, while still not calling their old concepts bad, and so come to harmony with reality again." The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury. GW |
September 13th, 2018 at 4:37:54 PM permalink | |
Dalex64 Member since: Mar 8, 2014 Threads: 3 Posts: 3687 | Here is a report covering Gallop polls throughout the past 70 years or so regarding church attendance. https://news.gallup.com/poll/232226/church-attendance-among-catholics-resumes-downward-slide.aspx "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan |
September 14th, 2018 at 4:09:46 AM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | Do you think that the people responding to such polls might have a reason to adopt a posture of "I'm a good Catholic so I don't attend any of these new-fangled English-language services"? |