Calexit

Inevitably, some Californians are trying to get a secession measure on the ballot. On one level this can be chalked up to the same petitions after Obama was elected. OTOH, this would be a ballot measure, which while probably non-binding would if it passed surely be a milestone that would be hard to walk back.

On first look it is impossible. The nation is too inter-wound to just split. Electric grid to currency it might take a generation to make a split. Social Security alone would be a huge hurdle. The very security of the USA from the start has been based on no other North American power rising, and policy has quietly and not so quietly kept Mexico from rising, and to a lesser extent Canada.

On deeper look, it is neither so silly or impossible to just dismiss. Consider how many great nations in history have had regions try to or actually break away and you may say "most all." Culturally, California is already nearly another nation. Ethnically, too. Ditto politically.

While always a place for nonconformists, starting in the 1960s there was a split with the rest of the USA. This grew in the 1980s and now seems to grow more and more yearly. When this kind of divide grows, a split is probably inevitable. To say, "we are the USA" is to stick your head in the sand.

Could it happen? What would post-split look like?

What would be the process to secede following any vote? I presume the Californian legislation can't just pass a law declaring them their own country? It must be far more complex than that. Is it even possible?

More likely instead of some Conch Republic type 'secession' California will split into three States, each remaining in the Union.

And take Oregon with them???
The students at California State University at Eugene, Oregon won't like that.

Quote: Aussie

What would be the process to secede following any vote? I presume the Californian legislation can't just pass a law declaring them their own country? It must be far more complex than that. Is it even possible?

Totally theoretically, CA, TX, HI, ME, and the 13 colonies have the strongest "legal" grounds for secession, having been independent and not owned by the feds first. Of course, I doubt it would much matter if the movement got serious anywhere.

Assuming it is a non-violent, Czechoslovakia-style "velvet divorce" it might be simple. CA would demit from the union. Their senators would disappear and their congressmen apportioned among the remaining 49 states, 48 if they take Oregon with them. Borders are already set, so just a matter of setting up customs stations, no big deal since few roads connect thru the desert.

Lots would have to be worked out, Social Security to currency to if they have to take some of the national debt. Water rights and the power grid. 170+ years of entanglement to be detangled, but that could be done in say 2 decades. The USA would probably want to keep the main military bases and CA would need the US Navy at the least to protect them. You could have a 2 decade CIS-type relationship.

If it happened, CA would probably draw very close to Mexico, perhaps dominating it over time. With a larger economy the fit might be natural. Mexico could see it as part of some kind of "Greater Mexico" getting back some lost lands from the Cession. Of course all speculation, but why not consider the possibilities if not just for the thought process?

Wouldn't San Diego be a sticking point, for the Pacific Fleet?

There is also a odd movement to create Cascadia (very small movement) which is basically Oregon, Washington, BC the Yukon and Alaska. Possibly Idaho and Alberta. The likelihood of that passed in the 1840's if you ask me....

Quote: AZDuffman

Assuming it is a non-violent, Czechoslovakia-style "velvet divorce" it might be simple.

Czechoslovakia- was a fairly artificial union that lasted for 75 years. The people had a separate history that dates back over a millenia.


If you notice, no modern integrated country has had a successful succession post WWII. Frankly, I thought the Euro Zone would see some breakups in the last 15 years, as defense and finance clearly belong to a larger organization. I assumed that certainly autonomous regions of Spain and Italy would break up, and less likely places like Bavaria.

I don't see a separatist movement effectively happening in the USA. Hawaii has the strongest claim of any state as it was a kingdom for a century. The short lived republics in California and Texas pale in comparison.

The six Mexican border states and the state of southern Baja make up 18% of the population of Mexico. They are greatly influenced by the economy of the USA.They are more likely to want to secede from Mexico and join the USA.

Quote: AZDuffman

Totally theoretically, CA, TX, HI, ME, and the 13 colonies have the strongest "legal" grounds for secession, having been independent and not owned by the feds first. Of course, I doubt it would much matter if the movement got serious anywhere.

Assuming it is a non-violent, Czechoslovakia-style "velvet divorce" it might be simple. CA would demit from the union. Their senators would disappear and their congressmen apportioned among the remaining 49 states, 48 if they take Oregon with them. Borders are already set, so just a matter of setting up customs stations, no big deal since few roads connect thru the desert.

Lots would have to be worked out, Social Security to currency to if they have to take some of the national debt. Water rights and the power grid. 170+ years of entanglement to be detangled, but that could be done in say 2 decades. The USA would probably want to keep the main military bases and CA would need the US Navy at the least to protect them. You could have a 2 decade CIS-type relationship.

If it happened, CA would probably draw very close to Mexico, perhaps dominating it over time. With a larger economy the fit might be natural. Mexico could see it as part of some kind of "Greater Mexico" getting back some lost lands from the Cession. Of course all speculation, but why not consider the possibilities if not just for the thought process?

This makes it seem pretty simple (well as simple as something like that could be anyway) but I guess I'm more talking about the legal position? Are states even legally allowed to leave? My opinion would be that they should be able to leave if they want but at the end of the day opinions don't matter unless there is a legal basis for them. What is the consitutinal position on secession?

Quote: Aussie

This makes it seem pretty simple (well as simple as something like that could be anyway) but I guess I'm more talking about the legal position? Are states even legally allowed to leave? My opinion would be that they should be able to leave if they want but at the end of the day opinions don't matter unless there is a legal basis for them. What is the consitutinal position on secession?

Wasn't there a war ALL about that in 1861?

Quote: TheCesspit

Wasn't there a war ALL about that in 1861?

Indeed. Which makes me think it may be a little more difficult than simply having a vote and away we go.