Negative interest rates and what it means

May 2nd, 2016 at 10:53:32 AM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25013
Quote: Pacomartin
I think a lot of rural citizens didn't handle anything larger than coins on most days, as they were fairly self sufficient in eating their own food and making their own clothes.


My grandparents had no money except
coins until they left the farm in 1945.
They had no need for money except
to buy coffee, sugar, and cloth to make
clothes. Right now I'm wearing a ring
my grandfather made out of a silver
dollar in 1910. Melted it and poured it
in a mold. I've had it on for 50 years this
year.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
May 2nd, 2016 at 8:08:54 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Evenbob
My grandparents had no money except coins until they left the farm in 1945.


They have these inflation calculators that say $1 in 1930 would be worth $14 today, but I don't think that captures the true differences in cash.

According to records, the total value of banknotes circulating pre WWII was
Federal Reserve United States Notes
1928 $1.626 billion $298 million
1940 $5.163 billion $248 million

So the total of those high denomination $500, $1000, $5000, $10000 banknotes from the 1928, 1934, and 1934A series was $5.57 billion. A considerable sum compared to the total amount of cash in circulation.

But in 1930 the total population was 122,775,046, so you are talking about less than $20 per person. Since NYC, Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit must have needed a fair amount of cash to function that basically leaves not much more than coins for rural America.

So even though inflation factors are 14:1 the tiny amount of cash indicates that most people made no cash transactions during an ordinary day.

Federal Reserve Notes in circulation jumped from $6.68 billion to $22.87 billion from end of 1941 to end of 1945 when the wartime economy kicked in and the federal government went into massive deficit spending.
May 2nd, 2016 at 11:21:18 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25013
Quote: Pacomartin

So even though inflation factors are 14:1 the tiny amount of cash indicates that most people made no cash transactions during an ordinary day..


In 1959 there was a Tony Randall movie
called The Mating Game. He plays an
IRS agent who audits a farm family, but
they have no income. They're self
sufficient and barter for what they can't
produce. It was a way of life that was
gone, but it hadn't been gone long
enough that the audience couldn't
relate to it. A funny movie with a to
die for Debbie Reynolds.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
May 3rd, 2016 at 12:05:00 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Barter was a way of life since there was so little "cash money" in circulation in rural areas. Tobacco was often sold for cash but otherwise what little was bought was bartered. Consider the Amish buggy.... repaired dozens of times, but acquired only once.
One white house speechwriter found himself slapped with a one hundred percent IRS lien, so he learned to weld and to live by barter.
May 3rd, 2016 at 2:41:02 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18265
Quote: Pacomartin

So the total of those high denomination $500, $1000, $5000, $10000 banknotes from the 1928, 1934, and 1934A series was $5.57 billion. A considerable sum compared to the total amount of cash in circulation.


What you have to remember about these large notes is what they were used for. Most people never saw them, but they were needed for large, legit transactions between corporations and the banks that they used.

When I worked at Chase, one branch still had a $10,000 bill in the vault. Because Chase was on it, they took it to the corporate office. The branch manager said he was very glad to be rid of it because they had to balance it monthly for years and years.
The President is a fink.
May 4th, 2016 at 2:43:18 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18265
May 5th, 2016 at 4:28:38 AM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Oct 28, 2012
Threads: 154
Posts: 5132
nope, but this works

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/business/international/ecb-to-remove-500-bill-the-bin-laden-bank-note-criminals.html?_r=0]War%20on%20cash%20continues%20as%20E$500%20note%20to%20be%20discontinued

not sure why it doesn't hyperlink

authorities cite convenience to criminals, but are mum on forcing transaction transparency to tax officials
I'm Still Standing, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah [it's an old guy chant for me]
May 5th, 2016 at 6:51:27 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: odiousgambit
authorities cite convenience to criminals, but are mum on forcing transaction transparency to tax officials


The Euro Area has a fairly high percentage of cash to GDP ratio. Not nearly as high as Asia, but high compared to the USA.

The USA is 7.74%, but that is broken up into 5.85% for the $100 bills, and 1.89% for all other banknote denominations and coins.
Eurozone is 10.31%, but that is broken up into 2.99% for the 500 Euro bills, and 7.32% for all other banknote denominations and coins.


Even without tax enforcement considerations, governments don't like to see people keeping too much wealth in cash, as it doesn't circulate.
GDP% 2014 Currency Value of currency per person in USD
20.07% Japan $6,429.42
15.67% Hong Kong SAR $6,272.93
12.39% Russia $1,084.92
11.55% India $180.46
10.99% Switzerland $8,655.39
10.33% Euro area $3,734.85
8.82% Singapore $4,762.28
7.74% United States $4,218.24
6.46% Saudi Arabia $1,567.67
6.19% Mexico $606.98
5.04% Korea $1,349.97
4.96% Turkey $480.77
4.41% Australia $2,459.01
4.01% Brazil $410.59
3.80% Canada $1,839.18
3.62% United Kingdom $1,587.94
3.56% South Africa $217.48
2.12% Sweden $1,108.76
China info not provided
7.93% excl euro area $1,274.98
8.31% incl euro area $1,564.27


Since the end of 2014 Sweden keeps dropping it's cash supply and is now around 1.5% . IMHO they will stop at around 1%. To go much lower will severely impact some of the very old, the rural people, and the children too young to legally use some of the phone apps.
May 5th, 2016 at 10:33:42 AM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4977
I don't know how commonly used 100 pound notes are in the U.K. but when I picked up some Pounds from my bank today the biggest they had was 50 Pound notes.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
May 5th, 2016 at 1:25:23 PM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
Quote: DRich
I don't know how commonly used 100 pound notes are in the U.K. but when I picked up some Pounds from my bank today the biggest they had was 50 Pound notes.


I'm not sure I've ever seen a 100 pound note.

Oh, this is why: £100 notes, in white, appeared in 1725 and continued to be issued until 1943. They ceased to be legal tender in 1945.(wikipedia)

Fifties are not universally accepted, some people don't like taking them. There were two types of people who used fifties: builders and bookmakers. Most other people would pay in stacks of 20's. I always try to get twenties when I go over there.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life