Maine votes to secede

Hypothetical situation:

For history buffs, Maine was called "The district of Maine" and was part of Massachusetts state. In 1820 Maine had 300K people and Massachusetts had 523K people. They were given statehood on March 15, 1820 as a free state mostly so that it would balance out Missouri who was going to be brought in as a slave state.

In three years Maine decides to jettison it's southern two counties (York & Cumberland) which contain roughly half a million of their 1.3 million people. The remaining population is aging with no growth, and decides it would rather be part of New Brunswick Canada (primarily because the Canadian government is not going off a fiscal cliff). Presumably the two counties would join New Hampshire, and the possibility exists to break California into two states before they reach 40 million and keep the count at 50.

Does the USA allow a relatively small number of people in a remote part of the country to peacefully leave and join our long time ally Canada? What happens?

For sake of argument don't say "it will never happen". I would like you to consider the situation that the majority of these 800K-900K people are seeking what they perceive of as financial stability without necessarily hating their home country. The question is what would we do? Would we be terrified of setting a precedent? Would the fear of domino effect on other states (Alaska, Montana, Washington, etc) drive the government's hand?

Is it possible that Canada would refuse, presumably because they do not want to anger Washington DC?

Would the country say "so long" and not be upset or vindictive?

On the first part, I do not see Candada taking them.

If they were to try to be 100% independent I don't see them large enough to be viable.

I don't see it happening, Maine voted for the fiscal cliff status-quo. If we do have a secession movemnet, and I do agree it could happen, it will be the south again. Regionally leaving, large enough to hold on their own. And with the ability to choke exports from the remaining states vis the Mississippi. With a great share of the military being southern folks an accomidation might have to be reached. A great deal of the northeast might just say, "Let the racist-sexist-bigot-homophobes leave, they are an embarassment anyways!"

It would make some sense for that to happen with Point Roberts Washington. According to Wikipedia, there was talk of that happening in 1949.

For those who don't know, Point Roberts is an exclave of the U.S., which you need to go through Canada to get to. I imagine the U.S. might let Cananda have it if the residents wanted to secede, since it is expensive for us to man a border station for so few people.

Quote: AZDuffman

On the first part, I do not see Canada taking them.
If they were to try to be 100% independent I don't see them large enough to be viable.

I have to admit that I was having trouble coming up with a viable secessionist idea. Texas is the obvious choice, having been a republic at one time. But Texas has a GDP that (using nominal exchange rate) is bigger than Mexico. So having Texas leave is a big deal financially.

Maine with only 65% of the state leaving would be a fairly small amount of GDP. I suppose that Montana would make more sense politically since they are have a good relationship with Alberta. Alberta had a fairly strong secessionist movement going when oil prices were high.

I am intrigued by this idea that no one passed an amendment to constitution preventing secession after the civil war.

Quote: Wizard

It would make some sense for that to happen with Point Roberts Washington. According to Wikipedia, there was talk of that happening in 1949.

For those who don't know, Point Roberts is an exclave of the U.S., which you need to go through Canada to get to. I imagine the U.S. might let Cananda have it if the residents wanted to cedede, since it is expensive for us to man a border station for so few people.

The Northwest Angle has the same issue. Border station is so small you have to call ahead.

Quote: Wizard

For those who don't know, Point Roberts is an exclave of the U.S., which you need to go through Canada to get to. I imagine the U.S. might let Cananda have it if the residents wanted to secede, since it is expensive for us to man a border station for so few people.

There are actually six of those little exclave's along the Canadian border in the lower 48. All with tiny populations.

But back to the question. If roughly a million people wanted to peacefully secede and join another country, would we let them? I am talking about a group that is small enough that it couldn't viably establish another country (like the civil war). Although the Southern states did not include many cities, it did cover about 30% of the population of the country.

Another example might be the Southern Rio Grande Valley ( roughly 1.2 million). Once again it is difficult to believe that they would vote that way, but not impossible. Most of the citizens there are of Mexican descent.

I do not believe that Canada would accept those counties of Maine outside York and Cumberland. I believe those counties support a large proportion of economic activity in the state. The rest of the state would be an economic drain on Canada with few prospects for growth and an aging population that would be increasingly expensive to support. Those areas of Maine have traditionally depended on forestry and manufacturing industries that have been in a long decline.

If Canada were to agree to such a scenario I doubt the US would be concerned for the same reasons.

Quote: Pacomartin

Hypothetical situation:

In three years Maine decides to jettison it's southern two counties (York & Cumberland) which contain roughly half a million of their 1.3 million people. The remaining population is aging with no growth, and decides it would rather be part of New Brunswick Canada

Shit, there goes the price of syrup!

Quote: Wizard

It would make some sense for that to happen with Point Roberts Washington. According to Wikipedia, there was talk of that happening in 1949.

For those who don't know, Point Roberts is an exclave of the U.S., which you need to go through Canada to get to. I imagine the U.S. might let Cananda have it if the residents wanted to secede, since it is expensive for us to man a border station for so few people.

(Warning: off-topic jag)

I visited Point Bob this past summer on the way home from a trip to Vancouver, BC; it was surreal. Border station didn't seem to have a problem with me ducking in for a few hours to drive around. Went to a pub that had a bunch of pull-tabs. You could pay using Canadian or American cash at the register, but the pull-tabs had a big sign that said "all plays, all pays in $CAD!" Way more Canadian license plates than American, I believe the population is more than 50% Canadian citizens (not 100% sure on that).

There is a street where the houses straddle the border - driveway/front lawn/house are in America, back yard is in Canada. One other weird thing is that they only have a primary school within Point Roberts. Once you hit 4th grade, you have to get on a bus and schlep across 2 borders, every frickin' day, to go to school in Blaine, WA. I sure as hell wouldn't want to raise a family there...