Deal or No Deal -- What would you do?

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May 15th, 2015 at 4:39:59 PM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 241
Posts: 6108
In this video the player has two amounts left: $1 and $1,000,000. The banker offer is $416,000. What would you do if this situation happened to you?

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
May 15th, 2015 at 5:05:40 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 137
Posts: 21195
Take the offer!
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength
May 15th, 2015 at 5:12:04 PM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 241
Posts: 6108
Quote: AZDuffman
Take the offer!


But the expected value of your case is $500,000.50. The Banker's offer is $84,000 short of that.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
May 15th, 2015 at 5:13:13 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 137
Posts: 21195
Quote: Wizard
But the expected value of your case is $500,000.50.


But with a huge variance and a life-changing amount. The deal is always discounted to EV.
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength
May 15th, 2015 at 5:45:24 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 217
Posts: 22938
Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

ouch.

The biggest loser.
"Trumpsplain (def.) explaining absolute nonsense said by TRUMP.
May 15th, 2015 at 5:45:53 PM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 241
Posts: 6108
Quote: AZDuffman
But with a huge variance and a life-changing amount. The deal is always discounted to EV.


True. At what offer would you be at your indifference point?
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
May 15th, 2015 at 6:58:42 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 217
Posts: 22938
You know the other thing about that deal. Look how many million dollar suitcases started on the board.

It's in the still shot of the video if you can see that.

It was a way better situation than the original game where they only had one million dollar case.

If I ever see that guy and recognize him I may be tempted to punch him. Damn.
"Trumpsplain (def.) explaining absolute nonsense said by TRUMP.
May 15th, 2015 at 7:12:45 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 217
Posts: 22938
They should show this to people on Survivor just to torture them for losing a challenge.
"Trumpsplain (def.) explaining absolute nonsense said by TRUMP.
May 15th, 2015 at 7:43:30 PM permalink
Face
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 61
Posts: 3941
Would take it so fast Howie wouldn't finish his sentence. In reality, I'd have taken it far before I got down to two cases.

Do they get a guaranteed payout just for being on the show? If so, that would change my answer
Be bold and risk defeat, or be cautious and encourage it.
May 15th, 2015 at 8:14:29 PM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 241
Posts: 6108
Quote: Face
Do they get a guaranteed payout just for being on the show? If so, that would change my answer


They don't normally. That contestant mentioned something about $10,000 but I didn't know what he was talking about. He may have told some sob story about something and they gave him $10,000 free and clear out of sympathy.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
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