Gigafactory

Whatever happened to 1) hydrogen fuel cells and 2) hydrogen-burning cars?

They have their issues, too, but seemed more likely to succeed than all-electric vehicles.

Quote: Nareed

Whatever happened to 1) hydrogen fuel cells and 2) hydrogen-burning cars?

They have their issues, too, but seemed more likely to succeed than all-electric vehicles.

I have read several analysts that say that we should stop messing with EVs and work on hydrogen cars as the real world changing technology.

Some are calling 2015 the year of wireless charging technology (for cell phones) Of the three competing technologies, one looks like it is far enough ahead that Starbucks and Samsung are going to back it. The photos are less than exciting, but I suppose if you have reduced the possibility of electrocution of your customers to zero, that is actually a big jump.


Possibly a standard for cell phones may mean we are getting closer to a standard for wireless charging of EVs. Presumably you will prepay for credits, and then recharge at your mall or office building. That would take care of a collection system at each location. You just park over the charger for whatever length of time you are there, and when you leave your account is debited for whatever your battery could absorb.

Quote: AZDuffman

The 200 mile range is still not enough for a good part of the population.

I agree with you that a 200 mile range vehicle will not work for 100 percent of the U.S. population. My argument is that in the next decade it's possible that EVs could occupy 10 or 20 percent of the U.S. auto market. Right now they hold 1% of the U.S. market. Skyrocketing from 1% to, say, 15% of the market is extraordinary growth.

***

Nissan says that their electric van has a fuel operating cost of 2.5 euros per 100 km. If you do the math, that works out to 5 U.S. cents (a nickle) per mile. Gas cars just can't compete with that. The common rebutal from the skeptics is that even with cheap fuel costs, the excessive upfront purchase (rip-off) price of an EV negates any fuel savings. Here's the weird irony: used EVs don't retain their resale value nearly as well as gas cars. If the media is to be believed, a Leaf purchased for $35,000 in 2012 is worth only $9,000 in 2015. There are 2 reasons for this incredibly low resale value: 1) battery degradation and 2) obsolescence as buyers hold out for newer models with longer range.

Worried about battery degradation? Nissan will sell you a brand new lithium battery pack for $5,500 (plus 3 hours labor for installation). In other words, you're looking at $15,000 for a 2012 used car with a nickle per mile fuel cost. Not bad.

Well, thousand of miles of telephone lines were once needed and were put up. It's million times easier than building the entire roadway concrete/asphalt system.***

That's a much much bigger task than building the infrastructure for electric cars. Besides the fact, you really start building them on the busiest routes and the places where they would actually get used. You don't need all the least likely places done first. The task is pretty doable and feasible much easy than people seem to think. (IMO).

***possibly not even much of an exaggeration.

Quote: Pacomartin

I have read several analysts that say that we should stop messing with EVs and work on hydrogen cars as the real world changing technology.

I agree on the messing with EVs but don't think hydrogen is going to be the thing. Natural Gas makes more sense. If we could find an efficient way of doing that at home we would have something. Or something else. EV IMHO is going to be one of those things that takes years and money to get as good as it will get then the next tech will shove it aside very quickly.

Quote: reno

Here's the weird irony: used EVs don't retain their resale value nearly as well as gas cars. If the media is to be believed, a Leaf purchased for $35,000 in 2012 is worth only $9,000 in 2015. There are 2 reasons for this incredibly low resale value: 1) battery degradation and 2) obsolescence as buyers hold out for newer models with longer range.

Worried about battery degradation? Nissan will sell you a brand new lithium battery pack for $5,500 (plus 3 hours labor for installation). In other words, you're looking at $15,000 for a 2012 used car with a nickle per mile fuel cost. Not bad.

New tech is usually like that on cars. Speaking as someone who bought just one new car in his life and that a bottom of the line car, used car buyers prefer tried and true because they want value and low cost. I do not want to sink loads of money into a car and I do not want potential surprises. Potential $6K for a battery when I can get a subcompact that runs on gas for a similar price? Easy choice.

Quote: Pacomartin

I have read several analysts that say that we should stop messing with EVs and work on hydrogen cars as the real world changing technology.

The experts say that building a new hydrogen fuel station costs anywhere from $1 million to $3 million per station. It's the classic chicken & egg scenario: the oil industry won't build hydrogen fueling stations until there are hydrogen cars, and no one wants to buy a hydrogen car until there are fueling stations that sell hydrogen.

The question in my mind is whether the gas stations built in the early 1900s & 1910s cost $1 million (inflation adjusted, of course.) Building a whole new infrastructure of fuel distribution from scratch will be extraordinarily expensive. The advantage that electric cars have is that every home in America is already wired for electricity.

Quote: reno

The question in my mind is whether the gas stations built in the early 1900s & 1910s cost $1 million (inflation adjusted, of course.)

Nowhere close. Gas stations used to be far simpler things. 1-2 pumps, 1/10 or less the size they are today. Sole proprietor, may be 1 employee plus the owner.

Quote: rxwine

That's a much much bigger task than building the infrastructure for electric cars.

Agreed. Tesla certainly had to cough up some money to build a network of SuperChargers. But compared to spending $1 million to build a hydrogen fueling station? Tesla's investment was a bargain.

Installing each SuperCharger location costs between $100,000 & $175,000, depending on the location. Those figures ($100K-$175K) are from 2013; hopefully the price has decreased since 2013 as they streamlined the process and reaped economies of scale. Tesla covers all the installation costs, but the landowner (typically at a shopping center or hotel) donates the 100 to 600 sq feet for the charger and 4 parking spaces. The landowner receives no payment from Tesla, and vice versa.

Toyota ought to cancel the Mirai. Cut their losses now. Economically, Toyota's numbers don't add up: it's too expensive to build a hydrogen fuel distribution network from scratch. On a mass scale, overnight? Cars are voracious consumers, the hydrogen network will have to be enormous.

Quote: AZDuffman

Nowhere close. Gas stations used to be far simpler things. 1-2 pumps, 1/10 or less the size they are today. Sole proprietor, may be 1 employee plus the owner.

Living in Mexico made me think a lot about the economics of living in a simpler infrastructure. A lot of the discussion about electric vehicles really have nothing to do with electricity. A Model T had a 20 horsepower motor and was unlikely to go above 40 mph. One result was that a Model T probably weighed 7 times the weight of a typical man. Today at the extreme positions, a Cadillac Escalade weights 40 time the weight of a typical man. A great deal of that weight is to give you a chance of surviving a high speed crash particularly with a truck.

In Mexican cities you can walk out of your home and buy food, go to a simple restaurant, and shop for some necessities all within a few hundred yards. Now I have to get in a more than one ton vehicle to get milk and bread.

Quote: Pacomartin

In Mexican cities you can walk out of your home and buy food, go to a simple restaurant, and shop for some necessities all within a few hundred yards.

As usual, it depends on where you live and what's nearby.

At home, the closest shops are over two kilometers away. The road is hilly and pedestrian crossings are dangerous. I take the car.

At work there are three convenience stores, one pharmacy, a stationery store and several restaurants in our street, plus many more shops and restaurants less than a km away. There are two banks within 750 meters (1.5 km round trip), and a Wal-Mart at the same distance. I tend to walk.