Bombardier CS300
October 9th, 2017 at 7:29:49 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Well that point is debated on a lot of forums, but if the unspecified orders all become MAX-8 then Boeing may be on equal footing with the A320 neo. They are clearly getting their asses kicked on the larger and longer range A321. 51 A319neo 3673 A320neo 1478 A321neo (long range variant not specifically broken out) 50 MAX-7 2050 MAX-8 (MAX-200) 75 MAX-9 262 MAX-10 1465 MAX-unspecified Boeing MAX orders (no variant specified) 774 Unidentified Customer(s) Oct 1, 12 201 Lion Air Feb 22, 12 200 Southwest Airlines Dec 13, 11 170 GECAS Sep 28, 12 142 SpiceJet Oct 23, 13 135 United Airlines Jul 12, 12 130 Air Lease Corporation Jul 3, 12 110 Norwegian Jan 24, 12 110 Ryanair Nov 28, 14 100 AerCap Jun 12, 15 100 American Airlines Feb 1, 13 100 VietJet Air May 22, 16 90 SMBC Aviation Capital Nov 10, 14 80 Aviation Capital Group Dec 20, 12 76 flydubai Dec 31, 13 75 Jet Airways Apr 23, 13 75 Turkish Airlines May 8, 13 71 BOC Aviation Limited Aug 13, 14 70 TUI Travel PLC Jul 9, 13 69 GOL Airlines Oct 1, 12 61 Air Canada Mar 31, 14 61 COPA Airlines May 30, 13 60 Aeromexico Nov 5, 12 842 40 small orders of 50 or less Airbus neo orders (no variant specified) 568 UNDISCLOSED 430 INDIGO INDIA 404 AIRASIA MALAYSIA 220 GECAS UNITED STATES 211 AERCAP NETHERLANDS 178 LION AIR INDONESIA 152 AIR LEASE CORPORATION UNITED STATES 144 GO AIR INDIA 137 AVIANCA COLOMBIA 130 EASYJET UNITED KINGDOM 110 SMBC AVIATION CAPITAL IRELAND 110 WIZZ AIR HUNGARY HUNGARY 101 LUFTHANSA GERMANY 100 AMERICAN AIRLINES UNITED STATES 99 QANTAS AIRWAYS AUSTRALIA 97 NORWEGIAN NORWAY 92 TURKISH AIRLINES TURKEY 85 ALAFCO KUWAIT 85 JETBLUE AIRWAYS UNITED STATES 80 FLYNAS SAUDI ARABIA 80 FRONTIER AIRLINES UNITED STATES 75 PEGASUS AIRLINES TURKEY 73 VIETJET VIET NAM 70 HONG KONG AVIATION CAPITAL HONG KONG 68 BOC AVIATION SINGAPORE 68 CALC CHINA 62 SYNERGY AEROSPACE CORPORATION BRAZIL 61 AVIATION CAPITAL GROUP UNITED STATES 55 LATAM AIRLINES GROUP CHILE 1057 45 smaller orders of 50 or less
It's a little disturbing that nearly all the leasing companies are favoring NEO over MAX GECAS 170 MAX | 210 NEO AIR LEASE CORPORATION 130 MAX | 152 NEO AERCAP NETHERLANDS 100 MAX | 211 NEO SMBC AVIATION CAPITAL IRELAND 90 MAX | 110 NEO HONG KONG AVIATION CAPITAL 80 MAX | 70 NEO BOC AVIATION SINGAPORE 71 MAX | 68 NEO ALAFCO KUWAIT 85 NEO I don't necessarily see that Boeing will go into the MOM. Boeing makes most of it's profits from the 777-300ER. It may just concede the narrowbody market to Airbus and the new competitors in a decade. It is certainly in a catch up position. I know that Airbus executives think they have an irrevocable lead in the narrowbody market. |
October 10th, 2017 at 6:31:25 AM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | Boeing already learned about complacency, perhaps Airbus should beware of it too. |
October 10th, 2017 at 6:31:26 AM permalink | |
Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 |
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October 10th, 2017 at 7:08:31 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
Narrow bodies sell in far greater numbers than wide bodies. Even if Boeing is making more money from a large wide body, I bet it generates more cash flow from the 737. I don't think the aircraft manufacturing business is feast and famine like some other types of industries.
I seem to recall saying not to long ago, that had Ancient Greece done nothing but warn about hubris it would have been enough. they're well on the way of repeating Boeing's mistake, and winding up with a fourth generation A320 two decades from now. Even if Boeing retires from the narrow body market, this would leave them vulnerable against COMAC, Bombardier or Embraer later on. BTW, given the continuing increase in flying all over the world, two large manufacturers are simply not enough. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 10th, 2017 at 6:32:48 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
That is true!. For instance, the 777-8/9 are not shipping until December 2019 if no problems develop. There are about 101 unfilled orders right now for the current generation of B777 and there were 99 delivered in 2016. (although production will be cut to 84 per year). 70 777-300ER 31 777F ================= The remaining passengers 777-300ER go to: 16 Emirates 13 Unidentified Customer(s) 10 Qatar Airways 6 Korean Air 6 ANA Holdings Inc. 5 Pakistan International Airline 4 United Airlines 3 Air India 2 Swiss International Air Lines 2 Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) 2 Intrepid Aviation 1 EVA Air 70 777-300ER Total Even at the slower 84 per year production rate, there probably will be a gap in the production line, which may be partially filled by selling more aircraft, but possibly at a greatly reduced price. Near the end of production, manufacturers are often willing to sell the last orders at much less money to keep the line going. This gap in revenue is partially made up by Dreamliner sales, but Boeing intends to increase production of the B737 to help fill the gap by increasing cash flow. If in fact most or all of the unspecified models end up being MAX-8 or MAX-200s then the analyst says that they should simply cut their losses and work on the clean - sheet design. With production at 47 per month this summer, to increase to 52 per month next summer those variants are only worth a few months at best. 50 MAX-7 2050 MAX-8 (MAX-200) 75 MAX-9 262 MAX-10 1465 MAX-unspecified |
October 11th, 2017 at 7:42:06 AM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
It also makes Boeing's decades-long neglect of the narrow body market the more puzzling. I'd even question whether Boeing should stay out of the regional jet market altogether. Consider the C Series can easily handle short transatlantic flights. Consider, too, the speculation of a CS 500 which would compete directly with the 737 and the A320 families. Perhaps it's time for both of the BIG commercial aircraft companies to make a lighter plane that can be scaled up, rather than a heavier plane that might be scaled down. The latter include lost causes like the MAX 7 and the A318. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 11th, 2017 at 1:32:00 PM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 | Delta says they won't pay the absurd tariffs on the C Series, and that they will deploy and operate the jets. So this means either: A) They're bluffing B) They expect the tariffs to be struck down (there are many ways to do this) C) They'll do as I and many others have suggested, and lease the planes from a foreign lessor or a foreign airline they can persuade to help them (like Virgin Atlantic or Aeromexico, in which Delta holds a 49% share) Which brings up two questions: 1) If Aeromexico buys the jets to lease to delta, what does that do to their relationship with Embraer? AM, after all, operates several E jets. 2) Is this a good time to buy Bombardier stock? It's rather low at 2.35 CAD. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 11th, 2017 at 3:29:22 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
I would say that market is going to have so many competitors in a few years that they should simply give up the variants. As that anylist said the fact that so many orders are listed as unspecified is just to hide how few orders they have for MAX-7, MAX-9, and MAX-10. |
October 11th, 2017 at 4:40:56 PM permalink | |
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545 |
These days few airlines marry manufacturers, perhaps because there are fewer of them. It's too easy to play off Airbus against Boeing and viceversa. So I'd say neither of the big two can shun any market segment. If Bombardier is near to encroaching on your turf, then encroach on theirs. Surely one of the two could produce small, light jets cheaper than either Bombardier or Embraer. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER |
October 11th, 2017 at 10:01:57 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | The B737-700 has been in production for 20 years, and there delivered over 1100 of them and there is about 7 left unfilled. It seats 143. The Bombardier CS-300 seats 145 and they have delivered 5 to airBaltic and 1 to Swiss Global Air Lines.. But Bombardiers has 231 unfilled orders for the CS300. This model is not the one that Delta ordered. Boeing has 50 orders for MAX7 and they don't even plan to deliver for two more years. Of the three orders the newest is nearly three years old. December 13, 2011 Southwest Airlines 30 September 26, 2013 WestJet 15 December 11, 2014 Canada Jetlines 5
Judging by the Bombardier's 238 orders to 50 Boeing MAX-7 orders and 51 Airbus A319neo orders, your conjecture is not true. |